This is a fascinating and essential resource for anyone interested in historical methods and the search for the historical Jesus. Almost all experts agree that the Jesus of the Bible is a composite of myth, legend, and historical evidence. So what can we know about the real Jesus? For more than 50 years scholars have attempted to answer this seminal question. In this in-depth discussion of New Testament scholarship and the challenges of history as a whole, historian Carrier proposes Bayes' Theorem as a solution to the problem of establishing reliable historical criteria. Writing with clarity and acuity Carrier explains Bayes' Theorem in easily understandable terms. He then explores the theorem's application to history and addresses numerous challenges and criticisms. For anyone with an interest in historical methods, epistemology in general or in the study of the historical Jesus will find this a fascinating and essential volume.